"assuming 3.9% is the correct chance of 0 hits on 8D"
Shouldn't it be more like 2.7%? It's .67 to the 8th power, right? Then multiply by the chance of the 4D unit scoring at least one hit, and you get about a 2% chance of the INF scoring no hits, and the CAV scoring 1 or more.
"the game isn't a perfect replication of Napoleonic Tactics."
I thought that the point being argued was the outcomes, not the tactics. Obviously, lots and lots of cavalry charges occurred against squares. Obviously, cavalry commanders of the period must have thought they had a chance.
What would happen, though, if a wargame rule made it impossible for the square to break? In that case, as you've all indicated, you'd never charge a square with cavalry. Right? Hence: if I changed the Outcomes to be more in keeping with what some of you think is correct... the result would be Wrong Tactics. There would be no more cavalry charges against squares, because you had done the math to eliminate the historical tactics.
Now, if you're saying that incentives need to be weighed differently, then I suppose there are a whole range of options for that, and you're free to explore to your hearts' content.
Personally, I don't want to lose the sense of urgency in Lasalle, in which an attacking army has a very limited window of time to win the battle, and his Billy Bad-Ass Heavy Cavalry is most likely going to show up late, anyway, because it's a Reserve choice. So Yes, of course it should be thrown into the battle as soon as it can be. You don't have much time left, by that point. That's the whole concept behind Lasalle: you're not gaming a large, long battle, in which you can keep units in reserve for several hours, while you soften up the enemy with a grand battery, or let skirmish lines fight it out. You're gaming a single climactic moment.
